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Morning Briefing

Summaries of health policy coverage from major news organizations

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Tuesday, Feb 25 2020

Full Issue

For President Whose Re-Election Chances Are Tied To Economy, Outbreak Presents Trump Existential Political Threat

Global stocks plunged on Monday as investors finally began to adopt a more pessimistic view of the coronavirus outbreak's impact on the world's economy. For President Donald Trump, who has banked on strong growth to propel him into another four years in office, that could spell trouble ahead.

For weeks, there has been a strange divergence among those trying to predict what coronavirus might mean for financial markets and the world economy. People in the trenches of global commerce 鈥 supply chain managers, travel industry experts, employers large and small 鈥 warned of substantial disruptions to their businesses. And public health authorities feared that the disease could spread far beyond Wuhan in China. (Irwin, 2/25)

The body鈥檚 immune response to infection is often more painful than the infection itself. The same is true of epidemics and the economy. As with terrorist attacks and financial crises, epidemics generate widespread uncertainty and sometimes panic. Government authorities and private individuals often respond by drastically reducing exposure to the shock, amplifying its global economic impact. (Ip, 2/24)

As President Trump spent Monday sightseeing in India, the U.S. stock market plunged amid growing concerns about a deadly virus spreading quickly across continents 鈥 a split screen that brought into stark relief how the coronavirus is testing the White House and undercutting Trump鈥檚 central reelection message. The Trump administration鈥檚 disjointed handling of the outbreak has faced mounting criticism as the president鈥檚 allies have scrambled to take preventive steps while seeking to reassure the public, at times struggling to explain their decisions and offer a consistent message. (Olorunnipa and Costa, 2/24)

With the possibility of a U.S. outbreak growing by the day, Trump allies and advisers have grown increasingly worried that a botched coronavirus response will hit the U.S. economy. Even Donald Trump Jr. has mused to associates he hopes the White House does not screw up the response and put the president鈥檚 best reelection message at risk, said two individuals with knowledge of his comments. 鈥淭rump鈥檚 reelection effort is so closely tied to the strength of the stock market and the economy,鈥 said Moore, a distinguished visiting fellow at the Heritage Foundation and 2016 Trump campaign adviser. 鈥淎nything that shakes us off of that pro-growth track is a concern, but I think the view of officials in the White House is that this will be contained.鈥 (Diamond and Cook, 2/24)

Wall Street was rocked in a volatile trading session Monday that ended with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 1,031 points 鈥 the worst day in two years for the blue-chip index 鈥 as fears increased over the global economic shock of coronavirus. The market sell-off came amid a significant uptick in reported cases of the disease in Europe, pushing investors to ditch stocks and buy up safe-haven assets like gold, which hit a seven-year high. (White and Bayly, 2/24)

The White House insists Trump is more than on top of the situation. "I think that's a problem that's going to go away," Trump said Tuesday at the start of a CEO roundtable in New Delhi. Trump acknowledged Monday's Wall Street plunge, but noted futures were higher ahead of Tuesday's market open. (Collinson, 2/25)

Markets took little comfort in his other remarks, that the virus seemed to have already 鈥減eaked and plateaued鈥 in China, where the outbreak originated. There are now 77,262 cases in China, the vast majority of cases reported worldwide. Chinese President Xi Jinping said the outbreak was 鈥渢he fastest spread, the widest range of infections, and the most difficult prevention and control in China鈥 since its founding, according to state media. (Elis, 2/24)

As concerns over the spreading coronavirus outbreak hammered U.S. stocks, one corner of the market was confronted with another potentially game-changing prospect: a Bernie Sanders nomination. The S&P 500 managed healthcare index of health insurance stocks tumbled over 7% early Monday afternoon, compared to a 3.5% fall for the overall S&P 500. Shares of industry bellwether UnitedHealth Group Inc dropped 7.6% and were the biggest individual drag on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, while shares of Centene Corp fell more than 10%. (Krauskopf, 2/24)

This is part of the Morning Briefing, a summary of health policy coverage from major news organizations. Sign up for an email subscription.
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