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Morning Briefing

Summaries of health policy coverage from major news organizations

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Tuesday, Feb 4 2020

Full Issue

Will Coronavirus Snowball Into A Pandemic? Some Optimistic It Can Be Avoided, But Others Aren't So Sure

Scientists map out the potential paths the coronavirus outbreak could take. Many say that although it's likely to escalate, it could operate like other seasonal pathogens and die out when the hot and humid summer months hit. In other news, despite the fact that experts say surgical face masks don't do much to help healthy people, there's been a global rush on them. And where did this virus come from? It's looking like the culprit is bats.

Health authorities are preparing for a possible pandemic as they work to contain a respiratory illness in China that's caused by a new virus. Governments are limiting travel, isolating sick people and keeping travelers returning from the affected region under quarantine to watch for symptoms. In the United States, the scope and cost of the government response is increasing. U.S. health officials already have tapped into a $105 million rapid response fund and notified Congress that they may need $136 million more. (Johnson, 2/3)

Speaking Tuesday at WHO headquarters in Geneva, the organization's chief of infectious disease control, Dr. Sylvie Briand, said she and her colleagues were confident a global pandemic could still be avoided. "I'm not saying it's easy but we believe it can be done," Briand said. "Currently we are not in a pandemic; we are at the phase where it's an epidemic with multiple sites and we will try to establish the condition in each of these sites." A pandemic is defined as a disease with significant outbreaks in multiple regions or continents. The new coronavirus outbreak has been strongly concentrated in China's Hubei province, with less than 200 cases spread across about two dozen other countries. (CBS News, 2/4)

Researchers are therefore asking what seems like a defeatist question but whose answer has huge implications for public policy: What will a world with endemic 2019-nCoV 鈥 circulating permanently in the human population 鈥 be like? 鈥淚t鈥檚 not too soon to talk about this,鈥 said Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease specialist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. 鈥淲e know that respiratory viruses are especially difficult to control, so I think it鈥檚 very possible that the current outbreak ends with the virus becoming endemic.鈥 (Begley, 2/4)

Amid the fast-moving coronavirus outbreak emanating from China, companies, governments and schools are developing policies on the fly to try to halt the spread, creating a live global public-health experiment in containment. In the U.S., some businesses and universities have told people who had recently returned from the epicenter of the outbreak or from mainland China to stay home for as long as two weeks after returning. The U.S. government also said on Friday that it would deny entry to foreign citizens who had traveled to China within the past 14 days and imposed a maximum two-week quarantine on Americans returning from Hubei province where the outbreak started. (Abbott, 2/3)

Facebook Inc said it will take down misinformation about China's fast-spreading coronavirus, in a rare departure from its usual approach to dubious health content that is presenting a fresh challenge for social media companies. The coronavirus outbreak has stoked a wave of anti-China sentiment around the globe. Hoaxes have spread widely online, promoted by conspiracy theorists and exacerbated by a dearth of information from the cordoned-off zone around China's central city of Wuhan, where the outbreak began. (Paul, 2/3)

Feeling sick? You may be wondering whether you could be infected with the new strain of coronavirus that has spread from China to more than two dozen countries and territories around the world. If you live in the United States, chances are good that it鈥檚 not the coronavirus that ails you. The Centers for Disease Control has confirmed 11 cases of novel coronavirus infection in the U.S., including six in California. The CDC also determined that 167 people who had symptoms consistent with the coronavirus were not actually infected. (Kaplan, 2/3)

The new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is now responsible for 17,228 confirmed cases in China, reported by the country鈥檚 National Health Commission on Monday, and confirmed cases of the strain in 23 countries outside China, according to the World Health Organization. As with any outbreak, global travelers have the risk of exposure on their minds 鈥 as evidenced by masks on their faces. (Japhe, 2/3)

From South Korea to the Czech Republic, China's coronavirus outbreak has triggered a massive surge in demand for protective masks, with factories scrambling to fill orders and shops selling out. The virus, which first appeared in the Chinese city of Wuhan, has killed 170 people and infected more than 8,000. It spreads through droplets from coughs and sneezes. (Lee and Zhang, 2/3)

The Vatican reportedly sent hundreds of thousands of masks to China amid the outbreak of a coronavirus that has infected thousands in China after spreading from the city of Wuhan.聽The Vatican confirmed it sent the masks to China in an email to the Catholics News Service on Monday. "The masks are destined to the provinces of Hubei, Zhejiang and Fujian," the press office told the news service. "It is a joint initiative of the Office of Papal Charities and the Chinese Church in Italy, in collaboration with the Vatican pharmacy." (Klar, 2/3)

Somewhere in China, perhaps in the southern Yunnan province, there鈥檚 a cave that may hold the mysterious origins of the deadly coronavirus that鈥檚 infected thousands, cut off millions of Chinese from their jobs and families and wreaked havoc in global financial markets.Peter Daszak, a disease ecologist at nonprofit EcoHealth Alliance, would know. He and his team have suited up and ventured into caves all over China and the rest of world in search of bats and the pathogens they carry.聽鈥淲e go into caves,鈥澛爏aid聽Daszak. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 just walk in. We wear a full-body suit: breathing masks, gloves and all the correct equipment.鈥澛燱hat he and other scientists around the globe are concluding is that the rapid spread of human settlements in once-remote regions have put聽people in ever-closer proximity to virus-carrying animals. (Langreth, 2/3)

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co. said it has developed a testing kit for the deadly coronavirus, helping its shares to their biggest two-day gain in more than five months. The arm of Fosun Group, one of China鈥檚 largest conglomerates, is applying for National Medical Products Administration approval to provide the test equipment, it said Monday in a statement. The stock jumped 4% Tuesday, bringing its two-day gain to 5.5%, the most since Aug. 26. China鈥檚 health system is racing to treat patients and contain a virus that has infected more than 20,000 people and claimed 425 lives. As of last week, health authorities had approved six types of test kits for the virus, according to Xinhua News Agency. As the outbreak has spread, some health care providers have said they face shortages of tests. (Zhao, 2/4)

Titled 鈥淯ncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag,鈥 the paper claimed to find similarities between the new coronavirus and HIV, the virus that causes AIDS. The use of the word 鈥渦ncanny鈥 in the title, together with 鈥渦nlikely to be fortuitous鈥 in the abstract, led some to think that the authors were suggesting the virus had somehow been engineered by humans.The paper, from academic institutions in New Delhi, India, was critical and alarming, if true. Except that it wasn鈥檛. The paper was almost immediately withdrawn, but not before plenty of handwringing from researchers who complained that the appearance of such shoddy work on a preprint server without vetting by peer reviewers is precisely why the hoary old model of science publishing is better at keeping junk science out of the literature. (Oransky and Marcus, 2/3)

This is part of the Morning Briefing, a summary of health policy coverage from major news organizations. Sign up for an email subscription.
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